Is Pakistan replacing the US as Saudi Arabia’s security assurance?

In a landmark development, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement on September 17, 2025, during Prime Minister Shehwar Sharif’s state visit to Riyadh.

The pact formalises decades of security cooperation, committing both nations to treat any aggression against one as an attack on both, while expanding joint military collaboration across exercises, intelligence sharing, and technology transfer.

Saudi officials emphasize that the agreement is not merely a reaction to recent events but the institutionalisation of their long-standing ties. Since the 1960s, Pakistan has trained Saudi forces and supported Riyadh militarily. For Islamabad, the deal boosts deterrence against rivals like India, while for Riyadh, it diversifies security partnerships beyond reliance on the United States.

The timing, however, is significant. The pact follows Israel’s surprise airstrike on Qatar, which targeted Hamas leaders deep inside Qatari territory.

The attack rattled Gulf states, raising doubts about Washington’s reliability as a security guarantor, despite the region’s trillion-dollar investments in U.S. defence systems. In response, Gulf nations are increasingly exploring a united Muslim security front, with Pakistan seizing the moment to position itself as a central defence partner.

Speculation also surrounds the possibility of a Pakistani nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia, given Islamabad’s status as the only Muslim nuclear power. Though unconfirmed, this perception strengthens Pakistan’s value as a partner compared to Western powers.

The deal has direct implications for India. Riyadh maintains robust ties with New Delhi, including deep economic engagement and discussions over potential BrahMos missile purchases.

Yet, closer defence integration with Pakistan may complicate this balance. Some analysts argue India missed an opportunity to secure a stronger role in Gulf defence cooperation, especially after the Qatar attack. India’s growing strategic alignment with Israel is seen as a barrier to forging similar defence pacts with Muslim-majority nations.

For Pakistan, the agreement represents both a strategic win and an economic opportunity, with expectations of increased Saudi investment. Critics, however, warn it could reduce Pakistan’s military to a “mercenary force” serving foreign interests.

For India, the development is a wake-up call. As one of the world’s leading defence producers—with advanced missiles, fighter jets, and naval platforms—New Delhi has the potential to play a greater role in Gulf security. Expanding defence diplomacy in the Middle East could not only strengthen India’s strategic influence but also provide economic and employment benefits.

Ultimately, the Saudi–Pakistan pact is more than bilateral cooperation. It is a signal of shifting power dynamics in the Middle East and South Asia, where U.S. security guarantees are under scrutiny, and new alliances are shaping the future of regional stability.

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