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Middle East Hubs: The Rise of Low Cost and the Importance of the Indian Subcontinent

Dubai, has just barely beaten out Doha to have the highest level of recovery in September 2022

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The largest of the three airports, Dubai, has just barely beaten out Doha to have the highest level of recovery in September 2022, operating at 86% of 2019 capacity levels with 3.9 million seats; Doha is at 85% of 2019 capacity with 1.9 million seats; and Abu Dhabi has recovered to 77% of its September 2019 capacity, with a much more modest 0.9 million seats.

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But when it comes to the number of places their networks serve, all three airports have either matched or surpassed their 2019 levels. Doha had 161 connections in September 2022 compared to 159 in September 2019, Dubai had 222 connections compared to 223, and Abu Dhabi had a rapid expansion of its destinations, going from 86 in September 2019 to 105 in September 2022.

Airport Seats Operated 

Sep 2019

Seats Operated

Sep 2022

Capacity Growth vs 2019
DOH 2,290,585 1,939,834 -15%
DXB 4,561,890 3,905,803 -14%
AUH 1,147,989 881,015 -23%

When comparing low-cost carriers (LCCs) and mainline airlines, Doha has maintained its 95% mainline airline share as of September 2022, while Dubai has seen LCCs gain share, going from 17% to 25% as of that month, with notable increases from Flydubai (+27% vs. 2019 capacity) and IndiGo (+6%).

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India increased its seat capacity share from Dubai from 12% in 2019 to 15% in 2022 and has fully recovered to 2019 levels, while Pakistan has added 10% more capacity than in 2019 elsewhere in the region. The top 10 Indian airlines operating in Dubai have experienced high recovery rates compared to 2019 levels, with IndiGo at +6%, Air India +6%, Air India Express -2%, and SpiceJet -2%.

The Middle East is now a significant low-cost market in its own right, and the geographic focus of the airline networks from the three main airports is shifting eastward to take advantage of growing opportunities. This is due to the growth of LCCs and their acquisition of market share from legacy airlines, as well as the strength of the market to the Indian subcontinent.

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