Aviation

Boeing Forecasts Demand for More than 41,000 New Airplanes by 2041

Boeing predicts roughly 41,000 aircraft by 2041, when the aviation industry recovers from the COVID era. These are a mixed fleet, with narrow body and freighter aircraft in strong demand. #boeing #FARNBOROUGH #2041

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– International traffic gains momentum as restrictions ease; many domestic markets nearly or fully recovered from pandemic impact.

– Over the next 20 years, airplane deliveries and commercial services together valued at $10.8 trillion.

– Freighter fleet to grow by 80% including new and converted models.

With demand rebounding for international air travel following ongoing recovery in many domestic markets, Boeing [NYSE: BA] today projected demand for more than 41,000 new airplanes through 2041, underscoring aviation industry resilience two years after the pandemic began. Boeing released its 2022 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the company’s annual long-term forecast, in advance of the Farnborough International Airshow.

The CMO forecasts a market value of $7.2 trillion for new airplane deliveries, with the global fleet increasing by 80% through 2041 compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Approximately half of passenger jet deliveries will replace today’s models, improving the global fleet’s fuel efficiency and sustainability. In addition, Boeing Global Services forecasts $3.6 trillion in demand in its market segments over the same time period, including strong demand for maintenance and modifications such as converted freighters; digital solutions that increase efficiency and reduce cost; and effective training to enable the supply of pilots and technicians.

“Despite the unprecedented disruption over the past two years, the aviation industry has shown incredible resilience adapting to the challenge,” said Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. “The 2022 CMO draws upon our expertise forecasting market trends to demonstrate the strong demand for new airplanes and related services in the coming decades, providing a waypoint as the industry continues to navigate its recovery.”

The 2022 CMO includes these regional projections in the next 20 years:

Continuing their strong growth story, Asian markets account for roughly 40% of long-term global demand for new airplanes. Europe and North America each account for just over 20% of demand, with 15% of deliveries going to other regions.
South Asia’s fleet continues to lead global growth, at 6.2% annually. Led by India, the region’s fleet will nearly quadruple from 700 airplanes in 2019 to more than 2,600 airplanes through 2041. Southeast Asia is projected to see the second-fastest growth with a near-tripling of its commercial fleet to 4,500 airplanes.
This year’s CMO does not include a forecast for airplane deliveries to Russia due to sanctions against aircraft exports. This change reduces global 20-year demand by about 1,500 airplanes compared to last year’s CMO.

Single-aisle airplanes will account for 75% of all new deliveries, unchanged from last year’s CMO, and totaling nearly 31,000 airplanes. Through 2041, new widebody airplanes will account for about 18% of deliveries with more than 7,200 airplanes, enabling airlines to serve new and existing markets, passenger and cargo, more efficiently than in the past.

The CMO also predicts continued robust demand for dedicated freighters to support global supply chains and growing express networks. Carriers will need 2,800 additional freighters overall, including 940 new widebody models in addition to converted narrow-body and widebody freighters over the forecast period.

NEW DELIVERIES (2022-2041)
Regional Jet	2,120
Single Aisle	30,880
Widebody	7,230
Freighter	940
Total	41,170

Boeing has provided the CMO annually for more than 60 years. As the longest-running jet forecast, the CMO is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. Learn more about the Commercial Market Outlook. In addition, Boeing will release its Pilot and Technician Outlook on July 25.

Aviation

COMAC Unveils Plans for the C929 to Rival Airbus and Boeing

After the success of China’s first C919 aircraft, the country is setting its sights on developing a larger plane. COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) has officially confirmed plans to build a widebody aircraft, marking a significant step in its aircraft lineup.

Traditionally, Airbus and Boeing dominate the widebody aircraft market, with decades of expertise in developing planes and engines capable of carrying heavy payloads. China, which currently relies on imported engines, is now aiming to challenge these giants with its own widebody jet, the C929, designed to compete with the Airbus A350 and Boeing 777.

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The C929 will be China’s first independently developed long-range widebody aircraft. It adheres to international airworthiness standards and boasts independent intellectual property rights. The baseline version is designed to seat 280 passengers and offers a range of 12,000 kilometers, catering to global demand for both regional and international air travel.

Russia, which also needs reliable narrowbody and widebody aircraft, could become a key customer for the C929. Additionally, China plans to target the broader Asian market as it continues to expand its aviation capabilities.

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China’s aviation progress includes the ARJ21 (now called C909), a regional jet with 100 seats for shorter routes, and the C919, a narrowbody jet with 180 seats designed to rival the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320. Both models have found increasing demand in the domestic market.

At China’s largest air show in Zhuhai, COMAC announced that Air China will be the launch customer for the C929 widebody jet, though details about order size and delivery timelines were not disclosed.

Other major deals announced by COMAC include:

Hainan Airlines: Firm orders for 60 C919 and 40 C909 regional jets.
Colorful Guizhou Airlines: 30 C909 jets, with 20 firm orders and 10 provisional agreements.

The C929, renamed from the CR929 after Russia withdrew from the joint development project in 2023, is expected to carry 280–400 passengers with a range of 12,000 kilometers, competing directly with Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner.

According to COMAC’s deputy general manager, Tong Yu, the first fuselage section of the C929 is expected by September 2027, with prototype test flights anticipated soon after.