At 18000 mph “out of control” rocket traveling towards the earth: No, it’s not the end of the world, however, the odds aren’t zero. After launching a section of China’s new space station last week, a section of the country’s largest rocket, the Long March 5B, is tumbling out of control in orbit. On Saturday or Sunday, the rocket is supposed to crash to Earth in what is known as an “uncontrolled re-entry.”

Why China’s space program let this happen? it is unknown, whether it splashes harmlessly in the ocean or affects the land where people live. Given China’s expected launch schedule, further uncontrolled rocket re-entries are likely in the coming years.

In the last six months, China’s space program has accomplished a number of significant milestones in spaceflight, including returning moon rocks and placing a spacecraft in orbit around Mars. Despite this, it continues to pose a threat to people all over the world by failing to monitor the trajectory of the rockets it launches.

The core booster stage of the Long March 5B, which was intended to lift the massive, heavy parts of the space station, would be falling out of the sky somewhere. The lower stages of most rockets return to Earth almost immediately after launch. After releasing their payloads, upper stages that enter orbit normally fire the engine again, leading them for re-entry in an unpopulated region such as the middle of an ocean.

That could be anywhere between 41.5 degrees north and 41.5 degrees south latitude for the Long March 5B booster. That means Chicago, which is a fraction of a degree north, is secure, major cities like New York could be struck by debris.

The Aerospace Corporation, a nonprofit that conducts research and analysis and is primarily funded by the federal government, predicted re-entry on Saturday at 11:43 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday. If this is right, debris could fall over Sudan and northeastern Africa.

Our latest prediction for CZ-5B rocket body reentry is:
?09 May 2021 03:43 UTC ± 16 hours
Reentry will be along one of the ground tracks shown here. It is still too early to determine a meaningful debris footprint. Follow this page for updates: https://t.co/p2AU9zE3y2 pic.twitter.com/MgzRAOTJnk

— The Aerospace Corporation (@AerospaceCorp) May 6, 2021

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The time — give or take 16 hours — and position remain highly uncertain. Aerospace had predicted re-entry over the eastern Indian Ocean more than an hour earlier the day before.

At 18,000 miles per hour, the booster moves the debris hundreds or thousands of miles in a matter of minutes. The forecasts become more accurate just a few hours before re-entry.